Between August 5 – August 7, 2019, the ARCC project hosted a scenario analysis workshop in the town of Mugumu. This workshop brought together NGO workers, conservationists, government officials, researchers and private sector representatives in order to develop possible scenarios for future land use change in the western Serengeti region.
The western Serengeti region is among the most densely populated areas in the GSE, and is remarkable for its ecological, cultural and economic diversity. The region encompasses some of Tanzania’s more famed protected areas, major riverine and lacustrine systems, large and small-scale mining operations, a number of growing urban centres, and long established farming and pastoral populations belonging to over 20 ethnic groups.
Dr Rebecca Kariuki led participants through an intensive three days of scenario analysis exercises with Anna Shoemaker and Linus Munishi acting as facilitators. Kariuki deployed the KESHO framework in order to combine and capture different stakeholder views on the drivers and nature of land use change in the GSE. This workshop is one in a series being conducted by Kariuki across the GSE, and will be used to compile data on perspectives of past and future land use change trajectories in northern Tanzania. This workshop series also provides an opportunity for those living in the GSE to reflect on how such issues as climate change, increased rates of urbanisation, growing populations, a lucrative but capricious tourism sector and shifting political realities will shape human and ‘natural’ resource health and well-being in coming decades.